'A cutback in hiring and compensation growth by IT companies will have a significant impact on consumer demand, especially in the urban sector of the economy.'
India's corporate sector is likely to report a slowdown in revenue growth and earnings for the July-September 2023 period (Q2FY24), according to earnings estimates by brokerages, after the country's top listed companies posted higher than expected profits for the first quarter. The combined net profit of Nifty50 companies, based on brokerage estimates, is expected to have grown by 19.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 1.75 trillion in Q2FY24 - a sharp deceleration from 37.6 per cent Y-o-Y growth in the combined earnings of index companies in the April-June 2023 period. According to estimates, the combined earnings in the second quarter would be down 8.8 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis and the lowest in the past three quarters.
As many as 31 mainboard IPOs raised a cumulative Rs 26,272 crore in this period, according to Prime Database. During the April-September 2007 bull run, 48 IPOs totalling Rs 21,243 crore were launched. The number of deals in H1FY24 was 2.2 times that of the same period of the last fiscal year, but the amount raised was 26 per cent lower.
The reported buyback of Temasek's 20 per cent stake in Tata Play by Tata Sons will be the third instance of Tata Group providing an exit to a foreign partner in recent years. In 2018, Tata Sons paid $1.27 billion to DoCoMo to buy back 26 per cent of the group's telecommunication venture, Tata Teleservices. This was followed by Tata Sons acquiring AirAsia Berhad's 49 per cent stake in AirAsia India in two tranches to make it a wholly owned subsidiary.
Nextbillion Technology (Groww), the venture capital-backed broking platform, has dislodged Zerodha Broking as India's largest brokerage in terms of number of active clients. Groww had 6.63 million active clients at the end of September, as against Zerodha's 6.48 million, ending the latter's long run at the top. AngelOne and RKSV Securities (Upstox) were ranked third and fourth with 4.86 million and 2.19 million active clients, according to data available on the National Stock Exchange (NSE).
Jefferies, IIFL, and JM Financial - none of which were in the top five last year - have now claimed the top spots in the league tables for equity capital markets (ECM) during the first nine months of calendar year 2023 (CY23), a period characterised by small- and mid-sized transactions. This shift marks a significant change, with these firms outperforming the bulge-bracket investment banks. According to data provided by Refinitiv, Jefferies leads the domestic ECM market, having handled share sales worth $2.3 billion, representing 12.4 per cent of the total volume of $18.4 billion for ECM transactions.
The country's most valuable lender HDFC Bank can perhaps no longer claim to be a favourite of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). Two data indicators, both somewhat interconnected, point to this - the diminishing premium of HDFC Bank's American depositary receipts (ADRs) compared to local shares, and the ample investment opportunities available to FPIs in the domestic market. The ADR premium has shrunk to below 5 per cent, down from over 30 per cent in March 2021, and even lower than recent levels.
Metal and mining companies, such as Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Hindalco, and Coal India, have been among the top-performing sectors on the bourses in recent months. The S&P BSE Metal Index is up 13 per cent in the past three months, rallying 29 per cent in the past year, outperforming the broader market. For comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex has only seen a 1.7 per cent increase in the past three months, with a 15 per cent gain since the end of September last year.
The recent surge in crude oil prices could shave off the gains made by India Inc in profit margins in the past few quarters. Worse, it comes at a time when consumer demand in the country is slipping and major global economies are witnessing a slowdown. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the margin expansion accounted for three-fourths of the rise in the listed firms' operating profit between the April-June quarter (Q1) of FY23 and Q1FY24, and only a quarter of profits gains came from revenue growth.
The broking industry's pecking order is set to change with Groww, a fin-tech startup from Bengaluru, poised to topple the industry's poster boy, Zerodha, as the leading brokerage in the number of active investors. According to data provided by the portal Topsharebrokers.com, Zerodha has 6.32 million active investors, while Groww is at 5.99 million. It is projected that Groww, which has grown at a much faster clip over the past two years, will surpass Zerodha this month, or next month.
These stocks offer the best combination of maximum 'buy' recommendations from brokerages and share price upside over the next 12 months.
JP Morgan's decision last week to include Indian government bonds in its Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) index and the index suite from June 2024 may be a sort of blessing for India, as the move is estimated to result in an inflow of $25 billion of foreign portfolio investments into the country. The development comes at a time when the spread between the benchmark 10-year government of India bond and the 10-year US government bond has declined to its lowest level in more than 17 years. Low yield spreads make Indian bonds less attractive to foreign portfolio investors (FPIs).
Stake sales by promoters and private equity/venture capital (PE/VC) investors this year are already exceeding twice those of last year. So far this calendar year, the selling stands at over Rs 87,400 crore, 2.2 times the Rs 39,700 crore worth of shares sold by promoters and PE/VCs in 2022. This year's tally has received a boost from stake sales by Adani group promoters.
Deteriorating ties between India and Canada could have a bearing on flows into the domestic capital markets. At present, Canada is the seventh largest country for foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows into India. According to the National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL), the assets under custody (AUC) of FPIs domiciled in Canada stood at nearly Rs 1.8 trillion ($21 billion) at the end of August. Almost 85 per cent of these investments are in listed equity, while the remaining in debt and hybrid instruments.
Shares of HDFC Bank will witness massive inflows totalling $600 million from passive trackers this week, predict analysts. This influx is attributed to the rebalancing activities in the S&B BSE Sensex and the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) indices. The Sensex is set for its quarterly rebalancing act on September 15 (date of adjustment), resulting in inflows of $102 million (approximately Rs 850 crore).
The OCCRP report alleges that at one point, EIFF and EMRF held free-floating shares ranging from 8 per cent to nearly 14 per cent in the four Adani Group companies.
India's corporate sector, including public sector enterprises (PSEs), continues to go slow on investments and capital expenditure (capex). According to data from Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL), corporate investments declined for the second consecutive quarter in the April-June period (first quarter, or Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24). After a contraction of 0.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in the 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter, corporate investments likely fell 6.2 per cent Y-o-Y in Q1FY24, write Nikhil Gupta and Tanisha Ladhaa of MOFSL in their recent report on corporate investments.
Polycab India, Power Finance Corporation, Shriram Finance, and Union Bank of India appear poised to transition from the mid-cap to the large-cap category within the domestic mutual fund industry. Their market capitalisation (m-cap) now ranks among the top 100, which is the threshold for the large-cap universe defined by the Securities and Exchange Board of India.
Over the past year, the National Stock Exchange Nifty FMCG Index, which tracks the market capitalisation of the top 15 companies in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector, has surged by 17.3 per cent. In contrast, the Nifty50, a broader market index, has witnessed an 8.8 per cent increase during the same period. The FMCG stocks have also been rally leaders in the current calendar year.
April-June 2023 (Q1FY24) was a mixed quarter for India's top family-owned business groups. Three of the big five in terms of revenue reported a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) decline in combined net sales and two saw a Y-o-Y fall in net profits. Combined net sales of all listed companies in the five groups were up just 2.2 per cent Y-o-Y at Rs 6.6 trillion in the quarter, down sharply from the 10.3 per cent in the March 2023 quarter (Q4FY23) and 42.8 per cent in Q1FY23.
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